On the predictability of individual events in power law systems

Abstract

We consider a modified Burridge-Knopoff model with a view to understand results of acoustic emission (AE) relevant to earthquakes by adding a dissipative term which mimics bursts of acoustic signals. Interestingly, we find a precursor effect in the cumulative energy dissipated which allows identification of a large slip event. Further, the AE activity for several large slip events follows a universal stretched exponential behavior with corrections in terms of time-to-failure. We find that many features of the statistics of AE signals such as their amplitudes, durations and the intervals between successive AE bursts obey power laws consistent with recent experimental results. Large magnitude events have different power law from that of the small ones, the latter being sensitive to the pulling speed.