On growth and fluctuation of Indian foodgrain production

Abstract

We have analysed the variation of all-India foodgrain production over the last four decades to assess the typical magnitude of year-to-year fluctuation. This has shown that the magnitude of the variation between the foodgrain production in 1996 and 1997 is by no means unusual for normal monsoon years and such fluctuations should not have a large impact on GDP if the management of the economy allows for this natural fluctuation. Much larger year-to-year changes are expected for years with large anomalies in monsoon rainfall. The problems of sustaining the growth rate in irrigated areas and enhancing that of rainfed areas are addressed. It is suggested that to attain adequate growth rates for sustaining the per capita availability, a genuinely interdisciplinary approach is required with active participation of the farmers in identifying the optimal strategies.