Estimation of minimum surface temperature at stage II

Abstract

Forecasting minimum surface temperature at a station, Stage II, located in mountainous region requires information on the meteorological fields. An attempt has been made to develop a statistical model for forecasting minimum temperature at ground level using previous years' data. Surface data were collected at StageII (longitude 73 oB, latitude 34 oN, and altitude 2650 m). Atmospheric variables are influenced by complex orography and surface features to a great extent. In the present study, statistical relationship between atmosphere parameters and minimum temperature at the site has been established. Multivariate linear regression analysis has been used to establish the relationship to predict the minimum surface temperature for the following day. A comparison between the observed and the calculated forecast minimum temperature has been made. Most of the cases are well predicted (multiple correlation coefficient of 0.94).