Simulation of heavy precipitation associated with an intense western disturbance over Western Himalayas

Abstract

Northern India is comprised of complex Himalayan mountain ranges having different altitude and orientations. This highly variable terrain is responsible for complexity of the weather systems passing over the region. During winter season, large amount of precipitation is received in this region due to eastward moving low pressure synoptic weather systems called Western Disturbances (WDs). Such heavy precipitation over the region lead to landslides and trigger avalanches in snow bound regions. This causes heavy damage to properties and human lives and therefore poses a great natural hazard threat. In this study an attempt is made to simulate a heavy precipitation event associated with an intense WD using a state of the art mesoscale model. Some important model simulated fields are compared with verifying analysis. Precipitation and circulation features associated with the intense WD are well simulated by the model. Forecast errors indicate that the high resolution mesoscale model could simulate the weather associated with the WD with reasonable accuracy.