Comparison of thunderstorm simulations from WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW models over east Indian region

Abstract

The thunderstorms are typical mesoscale systems dominated by intense convection. Mesoscale models are essential for the accurate prediction of such high-impact weather events. In the present study, an attempt has been made to compare the simulated results of three thunderstorm events using NMM and ARW model core of WRF system and validated the model results with observations. Both models performed well in capturing stability indices which are indicators of severe convective activity. Comparison of model-simulated radar reflectivity imageries with observations revealed that NMM model has simulated well the propagation of the squall line, while the squall line movement was slow in ARW. From the model-simulated spatial plots of cloud top temperature, we can see that NMM model has better captured the genesis, intensification, and propagation of thunder squall than ARW model. The statistical analysis of rainfall indicates the better performance of NMM than ARW. Comparison of model-simulated thunderstorm affected parameters with that of the observed showed that NMM has performed better than ARW in capturing the sharp rise in humidity and drop in temperature. This suggests that NMM model has the potential to provide unique and valuable information for severe thunderstorm forecasters over east Indian region.