Prediction of Indian summer monsoon: status, problems and prospects

Abstract

In this article, we review the present status and problems and future prospects of long-range forecasts of Indian summer monsoon. Since 1988, the India Meteorological Department has been issuing forecasts based on 16-parameter power regression and parametric models. All these forecasts are proved to be reasonably correct. However, in some years, forecast error was larger than the model error of ± 4%. In 2000, four new promising predictors were introduced in the operational models. Using an empirical model with 100 years of data (1901-2000), we show that Indian summer monsoon predictability exhibits epochal variations. During the recent years the model is showing poor forecast skill due to weakened coupling between the boundary forcing and Indian monsoon. In spite of serious efforts by the modelling groups, there are still problems in the dynamical predictions of Indian monsoon. Prediction of Indian monsoon variability is found to be sensitive to the initial conditions, suggesting that chaotic internal dynamics may ultimately limit the predictability of Indian summer monsoon.