Monsoon prediction – Why yet another failure

Abstract

The country experienced a deficit of 13% in the summer monsoon of 2004. As in 2002, this deficit was not predicted either by the operational empirical models at India Meteorological Department (IMD) or by the dynamical models at national and international centres. Our analysis of the predictions generated by the operational models at IMD from 1932 onwards suggests that the forecast skill has not improved over the seven decades despite continued changes in the operational models. Clearly, new approaches need to be explored with empirical models. The simulation of year-to-year variation of the monsoon is still a challenging problem for models of the atmosphere as well as the coupled ocean—atmosphere system. We expect dynamical models to generate better prediction only after this problem is successfully addressed.