Climate impacts on Indian agriculture

Abstract

Agriculture (arguably the backbone of India's economy) is highly dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon rainfall. This paper presents an analysis of crop-climate relationships for India, using historic production statistics for major crops (rice, wheat, sorghum, groundnut and sugarcane) and for aggregate food grain, cereal, pulses and oilseed production. Correlation analysis provides an indication of the influence of monsoon rainfall and some of its potential predictors (Pacific and Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures, Darwin sea-level pressure) on crop production. All-India annual total production (except sorghum and sugarcane), and production in the monsoon (except sorghum) and post-monsoon seasons (except rice and sorghum) were significantly correlated to all-India summer monsoon rainfall. Monsoon season crops (except sorghum) were strongly associated with the three potential monsoon predictors. Results using state-level crop production statistics and subdivisional monsoon rainfall were generally consistent with the all-India results, but demonstrated some surprising spatial variations. Whereas the impact of subdivisional monsoon rainfall is strong in most of the country, the influence of concurrent predictors related to El Niho-southern oscillation and the Indian Ocean sea-surface temperatures at a long lead time seem greatest in the western to central peninsula.