On the prediction of storm surges

Abstract

The article provides a review of some recent work on the prediction of storm surges. Beginning with a historical account of major Bay of Bengal cyclones in the last two decades, it provides a description of surge prediction techniques. The assumptions that are made are discussed critically. This is followed by an account of the forcing terms that drive the surge, and the computational procedure for model prediction. A brief comparison is presented between model outputs and the observed peak surge for major storms. Finally, the interactions of the surge with the astronomical tide, and wind-generated waves are discussed. Although the main focus of the article is on storms in the Bay of Bengal there is a brief description of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. The article ends with suggestions for improving surge prediction in the years to come.