Did unusual warming over the mid and higher latitudes play some role in causing the unprecedented failure of the southwest monsoon during July 2002?

Abstract

Southwest monsoon rainfall over India during July 2002 was the lowest since instrumental observations of monsoon rainfall began. The present study is an attempt to examine some of the probable causes for this unprecedented rainfall deficit. It is found that mid and higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere were abnormally warm during the spring and summer months. Associated with this unusual warming were two blocking highs, one each to the east and west of the Indian subcontinent. These were separated by an anomalous low (low temperature) just to the north of the subcontinent. This anomalous stationary wave-like configuration was consistently present from March to August and the blocking highs were found to be closer to each other during July. This configuration was apparently responsible for the advection of anomalously dry air over the Indian region during July, which may be one of the causes of the suppressed monsoon flow and, ultimately, rainfall activity.