Lyapunov exponent and predictability of the tropical coupled ocean-atmosphere system

Abstract

It has recently been proposed that the broad spectrum of interannual variability in the tropics with a peak around four years results from an interaction between the linear low-frequency oscillatory mode of the coupled system and the nonlinear higher-frequency modes of the system. In this study we determine the Lyapunov exponents of the conceptual model consist­ ing of a nonlinear low-order model coupled to a linear oscillator for various values of the coupling constants.