High-resolution climate change scenarios for India for the 21st century

Abstract

A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, is applied for India to develop high-resolution climate change scenarios. The presentday simulation (1961-1990) with PRECIS is evaluated, including an examination of the impact of enhanced resolution and an identification of biases. The RCM is able to resolve features on finer scales than those resolved by the GCM, particularly those related to improved resolution of the topography. The most notable advantage of using the RCM is a more realistic representation of the spatial patterns of summer monsoon rainfall such as the maximum along the windward side of the Western Ghats. There are notable quantitative biases in precipitation over some regions, mainly due to similar biases in the driving GCM. PRECIS simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in both rainfall and temperature towards the end of the 21st century. Surface air temperature and rainfall show similar patterns of projected changes under A2 and B2 scenarios, but the B2 scenario shows slightly lower magnitudes of the projected change. The warming is monotonously widespread over the country, but there are substantial spatial differences in the projected rainfall changes. West central India shows maximum expected increase in rainfall. Extremes in maximum and minimum temperatures are also expected to increase into the future, but the night temperatures are increasing faster than the day temperatures. Extreme precipitation shows substantial increases over a large area, and particularly over the west coast of India and west central India.