Systems analysis for planning of air fleets and maintenance facilities

Abstract

The high cost and extraordinary demands made on sophisticated air defence systems, pose hard challenges to the managers and engineers who plan the operation and maintenance of such systems. This paper presents a study aimed at developing simulation and systems analysis techniques for the effective planning and efficient operation of small fleets of aircraft, typical of the air force of a developing country. We consider an important aspect of fleet management: the problem of resource allocation for achieving prescribed operational effectiveness of the fleet. At this stage, we consider a single flying-base, where the operationally ready aircraft are stationed, and a repair-depot, where the planes are overhauled. An important measure of operational effectiveness is 'availability', which may be defined as the expected fraction of the fleet fit for use at a given instant. The tour of aircraft in a flying-base, repair-depot system through a cycle of 'operationally ready' and 'scheduled overhaul' phases is represented first by a deterministic flow process and then by a cyclic queuing process. Initially the steady-state availability at the flying-base is computed under the assumptions of Poisson arrivals, exponential service times and an equivalent singleserver repair-depot. This analysis also brings out the effect of fleet size on availability. It defines a 'small' fleet essentially in terms of the important 'traffic' parameter of service rate/maximum arrival rate. A simulation model of the system has been developed using GPSS to study sensitivity to distributional assumptions, to validate the principal assumptions of the analytical model such as the single-server assumption and to obtain confidence intervals for the statistical parameters of interest.