Integrated energy planning: Part II. Examples of DEFENDUS scenarios

Abstract

The first part of this paper presented an ab initio exposition of the development-focused end-use oriented service-directed (DEFENDUS) approach to energy planning. In this approach, the future demand for any source of energy is estimated on the basis of the energy services required and the efficiency with which these are provided. To meet this demand, the costs per unit of the available energy-supply/saving technologies are estimated and a least-cost mix of options identified. In this second part, some of the energy studies for which the DEFENDUS method has been used are described to demonstrate that its applicability is not confined to a particular region or source of energy. These studies include: electricity for five states of India, petroleum products for the country as a whole, biomass for the state of Karnataka, and a composite energy scenario for Karnataka involving integration of all the currently-used sources of energy. In every case, the energy usage pattern in the commencement year of the plan, i.e., the total energy usage disaggregated between the existing categories of users according to their end-uses, is obtained. Then, depending on the goals selected and the strategies that could be adopted to achieve them, growth rates for each category of users are used to estimate the number of users in future years. Improvement in the efficiency of end-use devices and/or substitution of energy sources are considered, to determine the possible reduction in the category-wise unit energy usage, and the corresponding energy requirement is estimated. The electricity plan for the state of Karnataka comprises future demand estimation as well as the comparative costs of various supply/saving options. For the other states, electricity demand has been estimated in various scenarios. In the oil scenarios for India, the focus is mainly on demand management through modal and carrier shifts, with emphasis on the middle distillates. The biomass strategy for Karnataka includes both demand- and supply-side measures. All these studies show that the DEFENDUS planning procedure is easily amenable to modification according to the particular case under consideration. Further, the integration of worksheets for individual sources of energy demonstrates that this method, though simple, is capable of dealing with composite energy planning. Above all, with the popularity of personal computers and spreadsheet packages, the DEFENDUS method facilitates the democratization of energy planning.