Simulation of rain-bearing summer monsoon systems along the west coast of India by use of ARMEX re-analysis

Abstract

Re-analysis, using surface, upper-air, and satellite observations specially collected during the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment-I (ARMEX-I), has been performed with a global data assimilation system at T-80/L18 resolution. Re-analysis was performed for the entire ARMEX-I period (15th June-16th August 2002). In this paper we discuss the results based on re-analysis and subsequent forecasts for two successive intensive observation periods associated with heavy rainfall along the west coast of India during 2-12 August, 2002. Results indicate that the re-analysed fields can bring out better synoptic features, for example troughs along the west coast and mid tropospheric circulation over the Arabian Sea. Simulated rainfall distribution using re-analysis as initial condition also matches observed rainfall better than data from the initial analysis.