Impact of satellite derived wind in mesoscale simulation of Orissa super cyclone

Abstract

Prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones is one of the most challenging problems in numerical weather prediction (NWP). Providing reasonably accurate initial condition to tropical cyclone forecast models has always been a problem to numerical weather forecasters. Recent advancements in spatial resolution and radiometric sensitivity have significantly improved the accuracy and density of satellite derived wind. The objective of the present study is to examine the impact of satellite derived winds in improving model initial condition and hence in mesoscale simulation of cyclonic storm. In this study, PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 is used to produce 5-day simulation of the super cyclone that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. Winds derived from QSCAT, SSM/I, MSMR and METEOSAT-5 satellites are used in preparation of high-resolution reanalysis (HRR) and improving model initial condition. The strength of the southwesterly wind (over ocean) converging to the storm is found to be stronger both in the HRR and improved model initial condition compared to that in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The strength of the cyclonic vortex is also better represented in the HRR and improved model initial condition. Improvement in model initial condition has resulted in consistent and significant improvement (35% in average) in prediction of the track of the storm.