Vulnerability from storm surges and cyclone wind fields on the coast of Andhra Pradesh, India

Abstract

The results presented here are from a study conducted for the government of the state of Andhra Pradesh (GOAP) in India, as part of a World Bank project on cyclone mitigation. A set of detailed maps were prepared depicting the Physical Vulnerability (PV), specifically storm surge inundation zones are shown for frequent occurrence, 50-year return period, likely scenario for global warming and extreme global warming. Similarly vulnerable areas from strong wind field from tropical cyclones (TCS) are also presented for the same four parameters. Vulnerability zones are presented from a social point of view also based upon certain socio-economic parameters that were included in determining the overall vulnerability of each Mandal in a coastal district (a Mandal represents a group of villages and towns) include: population, senior citizens, women, children under different age groups, type of housing, income level, cyclone shelters, hospitals and medical centres, schools and caste based population. The study is about scenarios that could happen if global warming and the predicted intensification of TCS actually occur as predicted by some numerical models.