Role of atmospheric stability over the Arabian Sea and the unprecedented failure of monsoon 2002

Abstract

The anomalous behaviour of the monsoon 2002 has been studied. We have made an attempt to combine satellite and other data sources to characterize the thermal stratification over the Arabian Sea during different phases of monsoon 2002. Using NOAA-ATOVSderived atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, we have calculated a daily stability index (SI) over the entire Indian region and surrounding oceans. The time series of SI clearly brings out the three major significant epochs of monsoon 2002. The relatively dry atmosphere west of 65° E, signifying lack of convection and an unstable atmosphere over the southeast Arabian Sea with west-to-east gradients in water vapour, SI and cloud liquid water content are noted. The unfavourable stratification during July over the entire Arabian Sea has been investigated in detail. The dominant modes of instability oscillations have been seen to be ~ 30 days both over the western and eastern Arabian Sea, while for the high-frequency modes preference was seen over the eastern part. Using the analysed fields of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, the relative contributions of advective and subsidence components in the maintenance of stratification have been investigated. The latter has been found to have played a more dominant role in the deficit monsoon 2002.