On intermediate-term prediction of strong earthquakes in the himalayan arc region using pattern recognition algorithm M8

Abstract

Seismicity of the Himalayan arc lying within the limits shown in figure 1 and covering the period 1964 to 1987 was scanned using M8 algorithm with a view to identifying the times of increased probabilities (TIPs) of the occurrence of earthquakes of magnitude greater than or equal to 7.0, during the period 1970 to 1987. In this period, TIPs occupy 18% of the space time considered. One of these precedes the only earthquake in this magnitude range which occurred during the period. Two numerical parameters used in the algorithm, namely the magnitude thresholds, had to be altered for the present study owing to incomplete data. Further monitoring of TIPs is however warranted, both for testing the predictive capability of this algorithm in the Himalayan region and for creating a base for the search of short-term precursors.