The Indian monsoon: 5. Prediction of the monsoon

Abstract

In this article we first consider the importance of prediction of the monsoon, and events such as the intense rainfall event over Mumbai in July 2005. We then discuss how meteorologists make short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts and the concept of the limit of predictability in a chaotic system such as the atmosphere. Problems and prospects of prediction on different time-scales are discussed by using one example of short-range forecasts and the prediction of the monsoon by dynamical and statistical methods. Finally we consider measures of the skill of a forecast and how high the skill has to be for it to be useful for applications.