Krishnamurti, T. N. ; Kishtawal, C. M. ; LaRow, Timothy E. ; Bachiochi, David R. ; Zhang, Zhan ; Eric Williford, C. ; Gadgil, Sulochana ; Surendran, Sajani (1999) Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodel superensemble Science, 285 (5433). pp. 1548-1550. ISSN 0036-8075
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Official URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci...
Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.285.5433.1548
Abstract
A method for improving weather and climate forecast skill has been developed. It is called a superensemble, and it arose from a study of the statistical properties of a low-order spectral model. Multiple regression was used to determine coefficients from multimodel forecasts and observations. The coefficients were then used in the superensemble technique. The superensemble was shown to outperform all model forecasts for multiseasonal, medium-range weather and hurricane forecasts. In addition, the superensemble was shown to have higher skill than forecasts based solely on ensemble averaging.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Source: | Copyright of this article belongs to American Association for the Advancement of Science. |
| ID Code: | 15909 |
| Deposited On: | 16 Nov 2010 13:45 |
| Last Modified: | 10 Feb 2011 10:18 |
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