Projected increase in widespread riverine floods in India under a warming climate

Abstract

Widespread floods simultaneously affect several subbasins in a large river basin and pose severe challenges to disaster management and flood mitigation efforts. India is highly susceptible to widespread flooding as the country receives more than 70% of annual rainfall in the four-month period from June to September. However, the potential impacts of climate change on the drivers and frequency of widespread floods in India remain unexplored. We use observations, climate model simulations, and a hydrological model to examine the drivers and changes in widespread floods under a projected future climate. The observed increase in extreme precipitation does not translate to flooding in most river basins in India due to its fragmented nature. Translation of extreme precipitation to flood depends on the catchment area. We examined the changes in the widespread floods in Indian river basins using a hydrological model and climate projections. Robust increases in intense precipitation area and frequency are projected under the warming climate. Furthermore, hydrological model simulations indicate a profound increase in widespread floods in Indian river basins under a warming climate. The increase in widespread floods in a warming climate can pose challenges for flood mitigation and management in the future. Consideration of spatial extent of extreme precipitation and catchment area can enhance flood monitoring and prediction efforts. In addition, increases in extreme precipitation may not always lead to rise in flooding.