Warm pool/cold tongue El Niño and Indian winter Monsoon

Abstract

In view of the recent global changes in the hydrological, glaciological, agricultural, socio-economic studies, etc., particularly, over the northern Indian region, Indian winter (December, January, February—DJF) monsoon (IWM) has important role. Geographical positioning of the Indian subcontinent having mighty Himalayas in the north and surrounding ocean in the south makes assessment of IWM important and interesting to study. During IWM, the western Himalayas (WH) receives almost one-third of annual precipitation due to eastward moving extratropical cyclonic storms, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the large scale subtropical westerly jet (SWJ). In addition, IWM is found to be in phase with the El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO). With reference to the recent decade’s finding of having different phases of El Niño- warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT)—it is imperative to see how these phases affect IWM. In the present study a simple mechanism between IWM with different phases of these El Niño and their relationship is studied and deliberated upon. WP and CT El Niño phase composites are prepared and their corresponding role in tandem with IWM is provided. It is found that during WP (CP) El Niño phase WH (foothill of the Indian Himalayan) region receives higher amount of winter precipitation. It is attributed to the fact that equatorial central Pacific warming makes more conducive proposition for intensification of the WDs and thus associated higher precipitation over western part of the Indian Himalayas. Northward shift of confluence over northern Atlantic region during WP El Niño phase dampens the SWJ leading to longer residence time for weather events—WDs—over the WH region. In addition, strengthening of Hadley cell leads to higher northward transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean region.