Response of streamflow to climate variability in the source region of Jhelum River Basin in Kashmir valley, India

Abstract

Successful management of the water resources directly depends on our understanding of the heterogeneity of changing climate and consequent response of annual and seasonal streamflows in different climatic regions. This study was undertaken to quantify the spatial and temporal variability of different climatic variables and their subsequent impacts on streamflows of river Jhelum and its tributaries during last more than three decades. Mann–Kendall trend statistic and Sen’s slope estimator test were used for assessing the trends and variability in climatic and streamflow variables. Data obtained from 11 hydrometric and 6 meteorological stations for different time intervals were used for analysis. The results pointed toward various significant trends in both hydrological and meteorological stations. Kashmir Himalayas witnessed rise in mean maximum temperature (+ 0.05 °C/year) and mean minimum temperature (+ 0.01 °C/year) with substantial reduction in precipitation (− 4.2 mm/year) from 1980 to 2015. Analysis of the streamflow trends revealed significant decreasing trends in all the hydrometric stations with the highest decrease in spring and summer seasons. Furthermore, the correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation between increase in temperature and streamflow, while strong positive correlation was realized with precipitation at both annual and seasonal scales.