Assessment of present and future climate change over Kashmir Himalayas, India

Abstract

Climate change over mountainous basins necessitates thorough understanding of present and future temperature and precipitation regimes for better water resource management, cryospheric resources, hydropower generation, natural hazard risk assessment, and ecosystem response. Global and regional climate models (GCMs/RCMs) do not represent valley/ridge scale interactions well. There are inherent model biases due to coarser reorientation of model forcings. The present study is an attempt to use the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to calibrate and validate Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) outputs. The outputs have been compared with corresponding in situ observations available at six meteorological stations within the Kashmir basin in western Himalayas. Daily temperatures and precipitation records during present and future time slices have been considered. The three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were divided into three future time slices of 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s. Downscaled climate data reveals increase of the mean maximum temperature in the range of 0.3–2.3 °C and the mean minimum temperature increase from 0.3–1.9 °C under different RCPs when compared with the baseline period of 1980–2010. An increasing trend from 2 to 17% at different meteorological stations under different RCPs has been observed in precipitation. Seasonally, autumn shows the highest variability both in temperature and precipitation followed by spring.