Measuring the Resilience of Supply Chain Systems Using a Survival Model

Abstract

Disruptions at any stage of a supply chain system can cause mammoth operational and financial losses to a firm. When there is a disruption with a supply chain system, it is highly desired that the system quickly recover. The ability of recovery is, in short, called resilience. This paper proposes a new measure of the resilience of a supply chain system based on the concept of survival and, subsequently, a survival model [Cox proportional hazard (Cox-PH) model]. The survival model represents a time interval or period from the time the system failed to function to the time the system gets back with its function (i.e., recovery). The input to the model is, thus, a failure event; the output from the model is the recovery time. This model has been implemented. There is a case study to illustrate how the model is used to give a quantitative measurement of resilience, in terms of recovery time.