Density dependent survival drives variation in density dependent population growth of an insect pest

Abstract

Several ecological processes – from population dynamics to species co-existence – are driven by density dependence (DD) in population growth rate. Thus, to predict and manage ecological outcomes, we need a deep understanding of which factors and demographic traits drive variation in DD. In the insect pest Tribolium castaneum, we found large variation in DD across habitats but not across source populations. We modeled DD in population growth as the product of DD in fecundity and survival, experimentally estimating each parameter. Across habitats, survival parameters varied more than fecundity, including in simulations with varying parameter values. Thus, DD in survival drives variation in density-dependent population growth. Hence, under strong density-dependent selection, we expect evolutionary change in density-dependent survival, provided sufficient genetic variance. Our general framework combining detailed experiments and simulations with a simple model can be used for other species to better understand the causes and consequences of density dependent population growth.