Assessment and prediction of surface ozone in Northwest Indo-Gangetic Plains using ensemble approach

Abstract

The earth’s surface ozone levels are becoming very significant due to their negative impact on human health, vegetation and climate. In this study, the methodology based on ensemble approach embodied linear and nonlinear behaviors was developed. It was applied for prediction of ozone concentration using dataset (2013–2016) of gaseous pollutants (O3, CO, NOx, MHC, TNMHCs) and meteorological variables as input variables. The daily O3 max/O3 min ratio of 10.9 marks the peculiar ozone pollution in the area. The fourteen prediction algorithms and their possible combinations of ensemble models were employed in this paper. Compared with individual models, the ensemble model approach showed an index of agreement of 0.91, the accuracy of 95.5% and mean absolute error of − 0.001 ppb between the predicted and observed diurnal cycle and daily averaged data of the year 2016 for benchmark analysis.