On modelling growing menace of household emissions under COVID-19 in Indian metros

Abstract

While local anthropogenic emission sources contribute largely to deteriorate metro air quality, long range transport can also play a significant role in influencing levels of pollutants, particularly carbon monoxide (CO) that has a relatively long life span. A nationwide lockdown of two months imposed across India amid COVID-19 led to a dramatic decline in major sources of emissions except for household, mainly from cooking. This initially led to declined levels of CO in two of the largest megacities of India, Delhi and Mumbai under stable weather conditions, followed by a distinctly different variability under the influence of prevailing mesoscale circulation. We hereby trace the sources of CO from local emissions to transport pathways and interpret the observed variability in CO using the interactive WRF-Chem model and back trajectory analysis. For this purpose, COVID-19 emission inventory of CO has been estimated. Model results indicate a significant contribution from externally generated CO in Delhi from surrounding regions and an unusual peak on 17th May amid lockdown due to long range transport from the source region of biofuel emissions in central India. However, the oceanic winds played a larger role in keeping CO levels in check in a coastal megacity Mumbai which otherwise has high CO emissions from household sources due to a larger share of urban slums. Keeping track of evolving carbon-intensive pathways can help inform government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic to prioritize controls of emissions sources.