Intrinsic mode functions and a strategy for forecasting Indian monsoon rainfall

Abstract

Indian monsoon rainfall data is shown to be decomposable into six empirical time series, called intrinsic mode functions. This helps one to identify the first empirical mode as a nonlinear part and the remaining as the linear part of the data. The nonlinear part is handled by artificial neural network (ANN) techniques, whereas the linear part is amenable for modeling through simple regression concepts. It is found that the proposed model explains between 75 to 80% of the interannual variability (IAV) of eight regional rainfall series considered here. The model is efficient in statistical forecasting of rainfall as verified on an independent subset of the data series. It is demonstrated that the model is capable of foreshadowing the drought of 2002, with the help of only antecedent data. The statistical forecast of All India rainfall for the year of 2004 is 80.34cms with a standard deviation of 3.3cms. This expected value is 94.25% of the longterm climatic average.