Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Distribution in the Kashmir Himalaya

Abstract

Current vegetation distribution in the Kashmir Himalaya was mapped using remote sensing data supported with extensive ground validation. The vegetation distribution under A1B SRES scenario ending 2085 was projected using IBIS vegetation dynamics model. Climate change projections, from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region were validated using observed climatic data from two stations. Both the observed and projected climatic data show statistically significant trends across the years. The IBIS model was validated by comparing the model-generated vegetation distribution with the observed vegetation distribution over the Kashmir Himalaya. IBIS-simulated baseline scenario of vegetation (1960–1990) is in good agreement (87.15%) with the observed vegetation distribution, giving credence to the future model projections of vegetation under the changing climate in the region. The projections suggest that grasslands and tropical deciduous forests shall altogether vanish from the region ending this century, whereas the savannah, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest, and the mixed forest types shall colonize the areas under polar desert/rock/ice. The projections further suggest that a substantial area under permanent snow and ice may vanish by the end of century which shall have severe impact on the streamflows, agriculture productivity, and biodiversity, thus adversely affecting the livelihoods and food security in the region.