Recent Climate Variability in Kashmir Valley, India and its Impact on Streamflows of the Jhelum River

Abstract

Streamflow trend is a robust indicator of the changes in meteorological inputs at a catchment scale and provides vital information about the seasonal and long-term storages of water in soil, snow and glaciers. Due to the mountainous terrain of the Kashmir Himalaya, the network of meteorological observatories is very scanty and inadequate. Therefore, the trends in the observed streamflows, temperature and precipitation shall provide a composite indication of the impact of changing climate at the basin level. Mann-kandall test was used to determine the trends in the annual, seasonal streamflows and meteorological variables (temperature and precipitation) from 1980-2010. Pearson correlation test was used to analyze the relation among the three hydro-meteorological variables. Results from the four observation stations revealed that the Jhelum streamflows have decreased in spite of the increase in the glacier-melt due to the rising temperature. Overall, the precipitation has marginally decreased in the Kashmir valley during the observation period. A good correlation was observed between the winter precipitation (snowfall) and spring streamflows at all the observation stations. The results indicated that the depleting streamflows in the Jhelum river is influenced by the seasonal precipitation and increasing temperature and consequent glacier loss in the Jhelum basin. It is believed that, if, the trend continues, the depleting streamflows will have adverse impact on the water-dependent sector like agriculture, horticulture, and tourism in the Kashmir Himalaya.