Sharma, Aryan ; Sapkal, Srujan ; Verma, Mahendra K. (2021) Universal Epidemic Curve for COVID-19 and Its Usage for Forecasting Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering, 6 (2). pp. 405-413. ISSN 2662-5415
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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1007/s41403-021-00210-5
Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41403-021-00210-5
Abstract
We construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 using the epidemic curves of eight nations that have reached saturation for the first phase and then fit an eight-degree polynomial that passes through the universal curve. We take India’s epidemic curve up to January 1, 2021 and match it with the universal curve by minimizing square-root error between the model prediction and actual value. The constructed curve has been used to forecast epidemic evolution up to February 25, 2021.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Source: | Copyright of this article belongs to Springer Nature Switzerland AG. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Universal Curve; Epidemic Forecast; India’s COVID-19 Evolution. |
| ID Code: | 119050 |
| Deposited On: | 07 Jun 2021 10:52 |
| Last Modified: | 07 Jun 2021 10:52 |
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