A conditional random field-based downscaling method for assessment of climate change impact on multisite daily precipitation in the Mahanadi basin

Abstract

Downscaling to station-scale hydrologic variables from large-scale atmospheric variables simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is usually necessary to assess the hydrologic impact of climate change. This work presents CRF-downscaling, a new probabilistic downscaling method that represents the daily precipitation sequence as a Conditional Random Field (CRF). The conditional distribution of the precipitation sequence at a site, given the daily atmospheric (large-scale) variable sequence, is modeled as a linear chain CRF. CRFs do not make assumptions on independence of observations, which gives them flexibility in using high-dimensional feature vectors. Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the model is performed using Limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) optimization. Maximum a posteriori estimation is used to determine the most likely precipitation sequence for a given set of atmospheric input variables using the Viterbi algorithm. Direct classification of dry/wet days as well as precipitation amount is achieved within a single modeling framework. The model is used to project the future cumulative distribution function of precipitation. Uncertainty in precipitation prediction is addressed through a modified Viterbi algorithm that predicts the n most likely sequences. The model is applied for downscaling monsoon (June–September) daily precipitation at eight sites in the Mahanadi basin in Orissa, India, using the MIROC3.2 medium-resolution GCM. The predicted distributions at all sites show an increase in the number of wet days and also an increase in wet day precipitation amounts. A comparison of current and future predicted probability density functions for daily precipitation shows a change in shape of the density function with decreasing probability of lower precipitation and increasing probability of higher precipitation.