Reservoir operation with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops

Abstract

This paper presents the development and application of a stochastic dynamic programming model with fuzzy state variables for irrigation of multiple crops. A Fuzzy Stochastic Dynamic Programming (FSDP) model is developed in which the reservoir storage and soil moisture of the crops are considered as fuzzy numbers and the reservoir inflow is considered as a stochastic variable. The model is formulated with an objective of minimizing crop yield deficits, resulting in optimal water allocations to the crops by maintaining storage continuity and soil moisture balance. The standard fuzzy arithmetic method is used to solve all arithmetic equations with fuzzy numbers and the fuzzy ranking method is used to compare two or more fuzzy numbers. The reservoir operation model is integrated with a daily-based water allocation model, which results in daily temporal variations of allocated water, soil moisture and crop deficits. A case study of an existing Bhadra reservoir in Karnataka, India, is chosen for the model application. The FSDP is a more realistic model because it considers the uncertainty in discretization of state variables. The results obtained using the FSDP model are found to be more acceptable for the case study than those of the classical stochastic dynamic model and the standard operating model, in terms of 10-day releases from the reservoir and evapotranspiration deficit.