Simulation of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones with WRF model: impact of initial and boundary conditions

Mohanty, U. C. ; Osuri, Krishna K. ; Routray, A. ; Mohapatra, M. ; Pattanayak, Sujata (2010) Simulation of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones with WRF model: impact of initial and boundary conditions Marine Geodesy, 33 (4). pp. 294-314. ISSN 0149-0419

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Official URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0149041...

Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2010.518061

Abstract

An attempt is made to delineate the relative performances and credentials of GFS, FNL, and NCMRWF global analyses/forecast products as initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) to the WRF-ARW model in the simulation of four Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones (TCs). The results suggest that FNL could simulate horizontal advection of vorticity maxima at 850 hPa; hence, the tracks are more realistic with least errors as compared to GFS and NCMRWF. The mean landfall errors for 24-, 48-, and 72-hour forecasts are 73, 41, and 72 km, respectively. The TC intensity is well captured by NCMRWF IBCs, as it could predict 850 hPa vorticity maxima. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall is well simulated with FNL, and equitable threat score is more than 0.2 up to 100 mm with minimum bias.

Item Type:Article
Source:Copyright of this article belongs to Taylor and Francis Ltd.
Keywords:Tropical Cyclone; WRF Model; Initial and Boundary Conditions
ID Code:97097
Deposited On:29 Jan 2013 06:25
Last Modified:29 Jan 2013 06:25

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