Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño

Krishna Kumar, K. ; Rajagopalan, B. ; Hoerting, M. ; Bates, G. ; Cane, M. (2006) Unraveling the mystery of Indian monsoon failure during El Niño Science, 314 (5796). pp. 115-119. ISSN 1095-9203

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Official URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/314/5796/115.sho...

Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1131152


The 132-year historical rainfall record reveals that severe droughts in India have always been accompanied by El Niño events. Yet El Niño events have not always produced severe droughts. We show that El Niño events with the warmest sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are more effective in focusing drought-producing subsidence over India than events with the warmest SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The physical basis for such different impacts is established using atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced with idealized tropical Pacific warmings. These findings have important implications for Indian monsoon forecasting.

Item Type:Article
Source:Copyright of this article belongs to American Association for the Advancement of Science.
ID Code:90477
Deposited On:14 May 2012 11:12
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