Transmission dynamics of novel influenza A/H1N1 2009 outbreak in a residential school in India

Abstract

Transmission dynamics of an outbreak of novel influenza A/H1N1 (2009) in June-July 2009 in a residential school in Maharashtra, India has been studied. A mathematical model of the type susceptible-exposedinfectious- asymptomatic-recovered has been adopted for the purpose. Analyses of epidemiological data revealed that close clustering within population resulted in high transmissibility with basic reproduction number R₀ = 2.61 and transmission rate (β) being 0.001566. Model has successfully described the dynamics of transmission in a residential school setting and helped in ascertaining the epidemiological parameters for asymptomatic cases and the effectiveness of the control measures. Our study presents a framework for studying similar outbreaks of influenza involving clustered populations.