Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Munot, A. A. ; Krishna Kumar, K. (2007) Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall Journal of Earth System Science, 116 (1). pp. 73-79. ISSN 0253-4126

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Official URL: http://www.ias.ac.in/jess/feb2007/0604.pdf

Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12040-007-0008-4

Abstract

The search for new parameters for predicting the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) has been an important aspect of long range prediction of AISMR. In recent years NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has improved the geographical coverage and availability of the data and this can be easily updated. In this study using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data on temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels, few predictors are identified and a prediction scheme is developed for predicting AISMR. The regression coefficients are computed by stepwise multiple regression procedure. The final equation explained 87% of the variance with multiple correlation coefficient (MCC), 0.934. The estimated rainfall in the El-Niño year of 1997 was −1.7% as against actual of 4.4%. The estimated rainfall deficiency in both the recent deficient years of 2002 and 2004 were −19.5% and −8.5% as against observed −20.4% and −11.5% respectively.

Item Type:Article
Source:Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.
Keywords:Indian Summer Monsoon; Predictors of Aismr; Multiple Regression
ID Code:67492
Deposited On:31 Oct 2011 06:11
Last Modified:18 May 2016 14:34

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