Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment

Goswami, Bhupendra Nath ; Venugopal, V. ; Sengupta, D. ; Madhusoodanan, M. S. ; Xavier, Prince K. (2006) Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment Science, 314 (5804). pp. 1442-1445. ISSN 0036-8075

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Official URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/sci...

Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1132027

Abstract

Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.

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Deposited On:01 Dec 2010 13:08
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