The Indian monsoon: 5. Prediction of the monsoon

Gadgil, Sulochana ; Rajeevan, M. (2008) The Indian monsoon: 5. Prediction of the monsoon Resonance - Journal of Science Education, 13 (12). pp. 1117-1132. ISSN 0971-8044

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In this article we first consider the importance of prediction of the monsoon, and events such as the intense rainfall event over Mumbai in July 2005. We then discuss how meteorologists make short-, medium-, and long-range forecasts and the concept of the limit of predictability in a chaotic system such as the atmosphere. Problems and prospects of prediction on different time-scales are discussed by using one example of short-range forecasts and the prediction of the monsoon by dynamical and statistical methods. Finally we consider measures of the skill of a forecast and how high the skill has to be for it to be useful for applications.

Item Type:Article
Source:Copyright of this article belongs to Indian Academy of Sciences.
Keywords:Monsoon; Prediction; Droughts; Predictability; Chaos
ID Code:15912
Deposited On:16 Nov 2010 13:44
Last Modified:17 May 2016 00:45

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