Indian Ocean-monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts

Krishnan, R. ; Ramesh, K. V. ; Samala, B. K. ; Meyers, G. ; Slingo, J. M. ; Fennessy, M. J. (2006) Indian Ocean-monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts Geophysical Research Letters, 33 (8). Article ID L08711. ISSN 0094-8276

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Official URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL0...

Related URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2006GL025811

Abstract

Monsoon droughts over the Indian subcontinent emanate from failures in the seasonal (June–September) monsoon rains. While prolonged dry-spells (“monsoon-breaks”) pervade on sub-seasonal/intra-seasonal time-scales, the underlying causes for these long-lasting anomalies remain elusive. Based on analyses of a suite of observed data sets, we report an ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling on intra-seasonal time-scales, in the tropical Indian Ocean, which is pivotal in forcing extended monsoon-breaks and causing droughts over the subcontinent. This coupling involves a feedback between the monsoonal flow and thermocline depth in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO), in which an anomaly of the summer monsoon circulation induces downwelling and maintains a higher-than-normal heat-content. The near-equatorial anomalies induce strong and sustained suppression of monsoon rainfall over the subcontinent. It is concluded that the intra-seasonal evolution of the ocean-monsoon coupled system is a vital key to unlocking the dynamics of monsoon droughts.

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