Climate change scenarios for Northwest India winter season

Abstract

A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) and MRI-JMA (Meteorological Research Institute - Japan Meteorological Agency) AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model) is applied to develop high-resolution climate change scenarios for Northwest (NW) India winter season. The present-day simulation (1961-1990) with PRECIS and (1990s) with MRI-JMA is evaluated. The models are able to resolve features on finer scales than those resolved by the GCM, particularly those related to improved resolution of the topography. The simulations under scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in both precipitation and surface temperature towards the end of the 21st century.