Forecasting minimum temperature during winter and maximum temperature during summer at Delhi

Abstract

A knowledge of minimum temperature during winter and maximum temperature during summer is a very useful for individuals, as well as for organisations whose workers and machines have to operate in the open, e.g. the armed forces, railways, roadways, tourism, etc. Accurate forecasts of minimum temperature during winter help in the prediction of cold-wave conditions and those of maximum temperature during summer help in the prediction of heat-wave conditions over northern India. Models for forecasting the minimum temperature during December and the maximum temperature during May at Delhi have been developed using surface and upper-air meteorological data from 1984-89. The results of testing the models on independent data from recent years (1994-95) are presented. The results are encouraging and more than 80% of the forecasts are correct within ±2°C. Possible reasons for large deviations are also investigated.