Modelling electricity demand with representative load curves

Abstract

Models for electricity planning require inclusion of demand. Depending on the type of planning, the demand is usually represented as an annual demand for electricity (GWh), a peak demand (MW) or in the form of annual load–duration curves. The demand for electricity varies with the seasons, economic activities, etc. Existing schemes do not capture the dynamics of demand variations that are important for planning. For this purpose, we introduce the concept of representative load curves (RLCs). Advantages of RLCs are demonstrated in a case study for the state of Karnataka in India. Multiple discriminant analysis is used to cluster the 365 daily load curves for 1993–94 into nine RLCs. Further analyses of these RLCs help to identify important factors, namely, seasonal, industrial, agricultural, and residential (water heating and air-cooling) demand variations besides rationing by the utility.