Pelican at Risk in Salton Sea ? a Delay-Induced Eco-Epidemiological Model

Abstract

Elevated salinity, accelerated eutrophication, blooms of Avian botulism and dramatic water quality fluctuation are supposed to be the key factors for massive die-off of Tilapia (prey) and Pelican (predator) in the Salton sea. We modify the model of Chattopadhyay and Bairagi [Ecological Modelling 136 (2001), pp. 103-112] with an assumption that the growth rate of susceptible fish population is very high and study the dynamics of the system by introducing a delay factor in the predator response function. It is observed that the otherwise stable system exhibit a stable limit cycle solution when the lag factor attains its critical value. It is also observed that there is a high possibility of an epidemic out break in the fish as well as in the Pelican population if the predation process is delayed by a considerable amount of time. Numerical simulations for a hypothetical set of parameter values are presented to illustrate the analytical findings.